Previous Week Review: Gold opened the previous week near 4345, initially experiencing a limited decline toward 4335 before buyers regained momentum and pushed prices toward the 4400 area.
However, prices failed to maintain this momentum and subsequently came under selling pressure, falling toward 4235, before recovering part of the losses and returning to trade near 4380 toward the end of the week.
As a result, gold traded within a relatively wide range between 4235 and 4400, reflecting continued volatility and a clear struggle between buyers and sellers around the current price levels.
Market Structure: On the medium-term timeframes, gold remains under the influence of the corrective pressure that emerged after prices failed to maintain the recent highs.
At the same time, shorter timeframes have shown an improvement in buying momentum following the rebound from the 4235 area. This makes the current movement more consistent with a short-term bullish correction, without sufficient confirmation yet of a broader shift in the medium-term trend to the upside.
Therefore, gold’s ability to break through nearby resistance areas while maintaining the current support levels will remain the key factor in determining the market direction this week.
Technical Levels Map: Key Support Zones: 4285–4300 — Current key support and buyers’ defense zone 4220–4205 4176–4157 4122–4104 4077–4059 4037–4021
Key Resistance Zones: 4390–4415 — First resistance 4434–4450 — Key resistance 4477–4490 4506–4521 4540–4558 4569–4580 4591–4607
Primary Scenario | Continuation of the Bullish Correction: The potential for the bullish correction to continue remains valid as long as gold holds above the 4285–4300 area, which currently represents the main defense zone for buyers.
If buying momentum continues and prices successfully break above 4390–4415 and hold above this area, gold could move toward 4434–4450, which represents a key test for the current price action.
If buyers manage to break above 4434–4450 and maintain prices above this zone, the upside could extend toward: 4477–4490 Then: 4506–4521
Price reaction at each resistance area should be monitored carefully, particularly as the current movement remains within a short-term corrective structure.
Alternative Scenario | Continuation of the Bearish Trend: If gold fails to break above 4390–4415 and selling pressure pushes prices back below 4285–4300, the bullish correction scenario would weaken, increasing the possibility of a continuation of the bearish movement.
In this case, the 4220–4205 area would become the first key zone to monitor.
A clear break and close below this area could extend the decline toward 4176–4157, followed by 4122–4104.
If selling pressure continues and these areas fail to generate a clear buying response, the correction could extend toward lower support levels.
Fundamental & Economic Factors: Gold enters this week following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s September decision, which included a 25-basis-point rate increase to 3.75%–4.00%, while the focus remains on inflation and the direction of U.S. monetary policy.
Accordingly, comments from Federal Reserve officials and U.S. economic data will remain among the key factors that could influence the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, and consequently gold prices.
Among the key economic releases scheduled for the week are U.S. PMI indicators on Wednesday, initial jobless claims and new home sales on Thursday, and durable goods orders and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
Therefore, it will be important to monitor gold’s reaction to these releases alongside the technical levels, particularly if the data leads to a clear shift in market expectations regarding the path of U.S. interest rates.
Key Factors to Monitor This Week: • 4285–4300 The main defense zone for buyers. Holding above this area supports the continuation of the bullish correction, while a break below it weakens this scenario.
• 4390–4415 The first major resistance area. A breakout and sustained trading above this zone would support further upside.
• 4434–4450 A key resistance area. A breakout above this zone could open the way toward higher levels.
• 4220–4205 The next support area if gold loses the 4285–4300 zone.
• U.S. economic data Particularly data and comments related to monetary policy, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury yields.
Conclusion: The overall outlook for gold this week remains tilted to the bearish side on the medium term, while a short-term bullish correction remains possible.
The 4285–4300 area remains the key level for the current price action. Holding above this zone preserves the potential for the bullish correction to continue, while a clear break and close below it would weaken buying momentum and open the way toward a retest of 4220–4205.
On the other hand, a break above 4390–4415 and sustained trading above this area would represent an important test of buyers’ strength, while a breakout above 4434–4450 would be an important factor in confirming an extension of the correction toward 4477–4490 and potentially higher levels.
Accordingly, gold’s movement this week will remain primarily dependent on its reaction to the 4285–4300 area on the downside and the 4390–4450 area on the upside, alongside developments in the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy.
Disclaimer: This report is provided for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a direct solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. All investment decisions and risk management remain the sole responsibility of the trader. The entity preparing or publishing this report assumes no legal or financial liability arising from the use of the information contained herein.