Overall Trend: The broader trend remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows continuing across the main timeframes. Recent price action shows renewed selling pressure after gold failed to hold above the 4180–4200 area.
Any current upside movement remains corrective within the broader bearish trend unless price breaks above 4175–4182 and closes decisively above this zone. Follow-through will be important in assessing any potential change in the short-term trend.
Momentum: Short-term momentum currently leans bearish as price moves toward nearby support levels. If the 4120–4112 zone holds, gold may stage a corrective rebound toward 4136–4142, followed by 4162–4169.
A break below 4112 could increase selling pressure and lead to a retest of 4105–4096. A clear close below 4096 would provide additional confirmation of the potential for further downside.
Potential Support and Buying Zones: 4120–4112 4105–4096
A clear break and close below 4096 could renew selling pressure and open the way toward: 4075 → 4061 → 4046
Potential Resistance and Selling Zones: 4136–4142 (speculative trades only) 4162–4169 4175–4182
A breakout above 4175–4182, followed by a decisive close above the zone, could increase the likelihood of a corrective rebound toward: 4189 → 4203 → 4216
KEY LEVEL 4102–4114
Holding above this zone: May support a corrective rebound toward higher levels, while the bearish bias remains in place below the main resistance zones.
A clear break and close below this zone: Would support the possibility of renewed selling pressure toward the next support levels.
Market Factors: Markets are watching the weekly ADP employment data, alongside U.S. building permits and housing starts, followed by pending home sales. These releases may influence the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, potentially affecting gold prices. Continued weakness in the dollar and yields could support a recovery, while a rebound in both may add pressure to gold.
Disclaimer: Avoid entering trades without clear confirmation signals. Always adhere to proper capital management, stop-loss placement, and risk management.