Overall Trend: The broader short-term trend remains bearish, although recent price action shows improving bullish momentum and an attempt to recover from the recent lows. The current move remains a corrective rebound within the broader bearish trend unless gold breaks above 4187–4197 and closes decisively above this zone, which could indicate an initial shift in the short-term trend.
Momentum: Gold is showing improving short-term bullish momentum as prices approach the key resistance zone at 4187–4197. If price fails to break through this area, selling pressure may return and lead to a retest of 4150–4140. A clear breakout and close above 4187–4197 could strengthen bullish momentum and support a continuation of the correction toward higher levels. Confirmation of a trend change, however, requires sustained trading above resistance, with caution against false breakouts.
Potential Support and Buying Zones: 4156–4149 4130–4122 4111–4104 A clear break and close below 4104 could renew selling pressure and open the way toward: 4090 → 4077 → 4062
Potential Resistance and Selling Zones: 4187–4197 A clear breakout and close above 4197 could support a further corrective rebound toward: 4205 → 4219 → 4239
KEY LEVEL 4140–4150 Holding above this zone: May support a continuation of the corrective rebound toward higher levels, while the broader bearish bias remains in place below the main resistance zones. A clear break and close below this zone: Supports the possibility of renewed selling pressure toward the next support levels.
Market Factors: Markets begin the week with a relatively light U.S. economic calendar, with the NAHB Housing Market Index due for release. Attention remains focused on the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, as lower oil prices and declining yields have helped support gold’s recovery. The corrective rebound may continue if the dollar and yields remain under pressure, while a recovery in both could limit gold’s gains.
Disclaimer: Avoid entering trades without clear confirmation signals. Always adhere to proper capital management, stop-loss placement, and risk management.