Overall Trend: The broader trend remains bearish, with lower highs and lower lows continuing across the main timeframes. Recent price action shows persistent selling pressure after gold failed to hold above the 4170–4180 area.
Any current upside movement remains corrective within the broader bearish trend unless price breaks above 4171–4177 and closes decisively above this zone. Follow-through will be important when assessing any potential change in the short-term trend.
Momentum: Short-term momentum remains tilted to the downside as price moves toward nearby support levels. If the 4114–4106 zone holds, gold may stage a corrective rebound toward 4139–4146, followed by 4154–4162.
A break below 4106 could increase selling pressure and lead to a test of 4097–4089. A clear close below this zone would provide additional evidence of the potential for further downside.
Potential Support and Buying Zones: 4114–4106 4097–4089
A clear break and close below 4089 could renew selling pressure and open the way toward: 4075 → 4061 → 4046
Potential Resistance and Selling Zones: 4139–4146 (speculative trades only) 4154–4162 4171–4177
A breakout above 4171–4177, followed by a decisive close above the zone, could increase the likelihood of a corrective rebound toward: 4189 → 4203 → 4216
KEY LEVEL 4116–4104
Holding above this zone: May support a corrective rebound toward higher levels, while the bearish bias remains in place below the main resistance zones.
A clear break and close below this zone: Would support the possibility of renewed selling pressure toward the next support levels.
Market Factors: Markets are focused today on the U.S. crude oil inventories report, scheduled for 5:30 PM Istanbul time. The release comes amid rising oil prices driven by concerns over energy supplies and geopolitical tensions. Inventory data may influence inflation expectations and broader market sentiment. Persistently higher oil prices could intensify inflation concerns and affect expectations for interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields, potentially limiting gold’s gains. Traders should therefore monitor the U.S. dollar, Treasury yields, and price reactions around key technical levels throughout the session.
Disclaimer: Avoid entering trades without clear confirmation signals. Always adhere to proper capital management, stop-loss placement, and risk management.