Overall Trend: The broader short-term trend remains bearish, although recent price action shows improving bullish momentum and an attempt to recover from the recent lows. The current move remains a corrective rebound within the broader bearish trend unless gold breaks above 4185–4195 and closes decisively above this zone, which could indicate an initial shift in the short-term trend.
Momentum: Gold is showing improving short-term bullish momentum as prices approach the key resistance zone at 4185–4195. If price fails to break through this area, selling pressure may return and lead to a retest of 4153–4143. A clear breakout and close above 4185–4195 could strengthen bullish momentum and support a continuation of the correction toward higher levels. Confirmation of a trend change, however, requires sustained trading above resistance, with caution against false breakouts.
Potential Support and Buying Zones: 4154–4144 A clear break and close below 4144 could renew selling pressure and open the way toward: 4132 → 4117 → 4098
Potential Resistance and Selling Zones: 4180–4185 4191–4198 A clear breakout and close above 4198 could support a further corrective rebound toward: 4219 → 4234 → 4246
KEY LEVEL 4154–4144
Holding above this zone: May support a continuation of the corrective rebound toward higher levels, while the broader bearish bias remains in place below the main resistance zones.
A clear break and close below this zone: Supports the possibility of renewed selling pressure toward the next support levels.
Market Factors: Markets are awaiting remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, alongside U.S. import and export price data and industrial production figures. These events follow stronger-than-expected producer prices and retail sales yesterday, increasing the importance of interest-rate expectations. A stronger dollar and higher yields could limit gold’s upside, while further declines in both may support the corrective rebound. Traders should remain cautious of volatility and false breakouts near key resistance levels.
Disclaimer: Avoid entering trades without clear confirmation signals. Always adhere to proper capital management, stop-loss placement, and risk management.